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the crux, IMO

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm

In Response To: The human element (John May)

John May writes:

If you can discriminate enough to tell that your advantage is >0% then you can tell where your advantage lies-its impossible to have one without the other. You won't be able to say that your advantage is 4.13%, but you can say it lies between, for example, 2-10%, and then calculating your optimal bet is easy.

The first sentence is, in my opinion, irrefutable. I cannot imagine a process that permits determination of advantage without also conveying information about relative advantage.

But as RD says, in a nice post in a thread above, StevieY and Fezzik are not all that far apart; both acknowledge relative advantage. Most of StevieY's handicapping involves side and total bets, which one may imagine possessess less variability in relative advantage; therefore he downplays bet sizing. Fezzik is as likely to bet on a bizarre cross-sport proposition as he is on an NFL side. He expects more variability in relative advantage across his bets, and so grades them more finely (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, CHUNK!). I consider both to have addressed the issue in good faith.

Many others, however, have not. Some use bet sizing as an advertising ploy (buy my 1000 star play!!!!) and others superciliously dismiss the issue of bet sizing ("*they* call it the Kelly criterion; *I* call it the Kevorkian criterion, har, har").

CC

Messages In This Thread

The Book: Sharp Sports Betting -- Joseph P -- 23 Aug 01, 11:01 am
Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm
over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm
Can't agree with that -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm
Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am
For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am
I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am
I'm sorry but... -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am
The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm
the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am
A proof -- John May -- 28 Aug 01, 11:10 am
Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am
ok ok -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 12:00 am
My approach should work for you -- Stanford Wong -- 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm
This is terribly wrong -- Kim Lee -- 23 Aug 01, 7:30 pm
Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am
Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am
re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am
Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am
bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am
Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm
Question to Kim Lee from a novice?? -- big nguyen -- 24 Aug 01, 12:01 pm
Reducing Vigorish and Scalping -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 1:17 pm
Your well on your way to winning -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:53 pm
Further explanation requested. -- samo666 -- 25 Aug 01, 2:08 am
1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm

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