NFL Forum

No, calculations are incorrect

Posted By: Don Schlesinger
Date: 31 Jul 01, 8:25 pm

In Response To: One more option (James)

"For -105 bets, your 3 hypothetical handicappers optimal bets are:

"53% $48 bets, EV = $2.20 ROI = 2.3% (EV for2 bets)
"55% $130 bets, EV = $16.12 ROI = 6.2%
"57% $212 bets, EV = $42.90 ROI = 10.1%

"If I've done these calculations correctly, -105 juice is equivalent to 14:5 parlays for the 55% handicapper."

No, the math isn't right. For 53% straight wagers, ROI is 3.48%. Say you make 100 bets at $105 = $10,500 wagered. When you win 53 of them, you get back 53 x $205 = $10,865. Your profit is $365 on $10,500, or 3.48%. Your f* is 3.65% (3.48% x 1.05). So, you bet $73 on each of the two games, and your EV is $5.08.

For 55% at -105, your ROI is 7.38% and your f* is 7.75%. You bet $155 on each of the two games, and your EV is $22.88.

Now, compared to the 14 to 5 parlay, we saw that the ROI was 14.95% and the f* was 5.34%. So our parlay wager was $106.79 and the EV was $15.96.

The two straight bets at -105 are clearly superior.

Don

Messages In This Thread

Winning by hitting 52% -- fezzik -- 30 Jul 01, 10:50 pm

Mathematical analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 5:37 pm

Very nice, but what about... -- Flipper -- 31 Jul 01, 6:03 pm

One more option -- James -- 31 Jul 01, 6:19 pm

-105 vig -- fezzik -- 31 Jul 01, 6:37 pm

You can get +100 for NFL bets (nt) -- StevieY -- 31 Jul 01, 7:04 pm

Has anyone figured out -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 12:25 pm

Lots of bad bettors -- StevieY -- 1 Aug 01, 3:20 pm

A possible way -- David Matthews -- 1 Aug 01, 4:57 pm

I doubt it -- James -- 2 Aug 01, 9:31 am

Volume :-) (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 1 Aug 01, 6:05 pm

+100 NFL -- lepto -- 13 Aug 01, 3:02 am

Backchannel, please. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 13 Aug 01, 8:10 pm

No, calculations are incorrect -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 8:25 pm

Not surprised. Thanks. -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 10:20 am

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