NFL Forum

I'm sorry but...

Posted By: StevieY
Date: 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am

In Response To: I'm sorry but (John May)

this isn't BJ. Tell me how you can look at each game you take and say I have X% advantage? Yeah, you can estimate it, and you will almost always be wrong. They are human games, played by guys who think(or sometimes not think), by guys who roll out of bed in the morning feeling like shit(or feeling great). You can determine you have an edge, but you can't determine what the edge is. I know a guy(one of my old baseball coaches) who hit a solid 56.3% of his NFL bets for 11 years(one losing year, he hit exactly 50%). Anyone would be happy with that. Well sports change over time, and he couldn't adjust his old way of thinking. His next(and last) 6 years, not one winning season, and he hit 46.7% of his bets. There are too many variables to deal with when humans get involved, that's why it will never be an exact science(they always say Secretariat would have never lost a race if he wasn't handled by humans). Fez made a post about going for 2 down 4 in the NFL, what if teams started doing that? Well, that would downgrade the power of the 3. If you didn't adjust, you would be in trouble.

Messages In This Thread

The Book: Sharp Sports Betting -- Joseph P -- 23 Aug 01, 11:01 am

Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm

over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm

Can't agree with that -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm

John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm

Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am

For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am

I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am

I'm sorry but... -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am

The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm

the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm

More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am

A proof -- John May -- 28 Aug 01, 11:10 am

Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am

ok ok -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 12:00 am

My approach should work for you -- Stanford Wong -- 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm

This is terribly wrong -- Kim Lee -- 23 Aug 01, 7:30 pm

Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am

Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am

re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am

Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am

bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am

Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm

Question to Kim Lee from a novice?? -- big nguyen -- 24 Aug 01, 12:01 pm

Reducing Vigorish and Scalping -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 1:17 pm

Your well on your way to winning -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

Further explanation requested. -- samo666 -- 25 Aug 01, 2:08 am

1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm

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