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-105 vig

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 31 Jul 01, 6:37 pm

In Response To: One more option (James)

I'll let Don do the math, but intuitively the -105 vig should be slightly superior to the 14-5 parlay.

Why? the 14-5 is essentially, just over -105 applied twice. So $100 grows to $280 after W-W. But it grows to $281.18 after W-W betting 2 consecutive straight bets. Also, when making 2 team parlay bets you are caught with the uncertainty of not knowing the exact amount you are wagering on certain games, since the conclusion of the other half of the parlays they are in impacts your exposure. So exact optimal bet sizing on each individual game cannot be done like it can with straight wagers (of course, we all agree that estimating your edge on any one game is almost impossible, so maybe this isn't such a big deal).

Fez Conclusion: -105 better than 14-5, but just barely. Personally, I'm pretty indifferent when offered 14-5 vs. -106 vig.

Messages In This Thread

Winning by hitting 52% -- fezzik -- 30 Jul 01, 10:50 pm
Mathematical analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 5:37 pm
Very nice, but what about... -- Flipper -- 31 Jul 01, 6:03 pm
One more option -- James -- 31 Jul 01, 6:19 pm
-105 vig -- fezzik -- 31 Jul 01, 6:37 pm
You can get +100 for NFL bets (nt) -- StevieY -- 31 Jul 01, 7:04 pm
Has anyone figured out -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 12:25 pm
Lots of bad bettors -- StevieY -- 1 Aug 01, 3:20 pm
A possible way -- David Matthews -- 1 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
I doubt it -- James -- 2 Aug 01, 9:31 am
Volume :-) (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 1 Aug 01, 6:05 pm
+100 NFL -- lepto -- 13 Aug 01, 3:02 am
Backchannel, please. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 13 Aug 01, 8:10 pm
No, calculations are incorrect -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 8:25 pm
Not surprised. Thanks. -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 10:20 am

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