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Why sports betting is brutal

Posted By: Kim Lee
Date: 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am

In Response To: Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 (Compador)

In blackjack you play against a dealer with a fixed strategy, and the house edge is only .5%. But you must still search for good games and conditions to win.

At poker you play against above-average local survivors, particularly as you move up. They actively react to your strategy. And the rake is around 3%. It is much tougher than blackjack to make nontrivial money. To win you absolutely must find soft games with loose players.

At sports you compete against global syndicates (e.g., Billy Walters, Kosher Boys, etc.) with experience, inside information, and unlimited data and money. And to protect themselves the bookies have a 4.5% edge. Famous bookie quote: "That 11:10 is stronger than death."

Don posted I was successful at sports, but like many of his casual sports posts he was merely speculating. I don't yet know whether I'm successful (probably O.K. now), but have some bitter early memories. Don no longer bets sports because he lost. It is very tough to make money at closing lines laying -110, and I rarely do it. Instead I focus on reducing vigorish and getting line advantage while taking advantage of exotic wagers and bookie promotions or mistakes. In some ways this removes all the fun of handicapping just like blackjack scouting and Wonging removes the fun of just playing. But I'm determined to become a winner, and it has been intellectually fascinating.

Messages In This Thread

The Book: Sharp Sports Betting -- Joseph P -- 23 Aug 01, 11:01 am
Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm
over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm
Can't agree with that -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm
Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am
For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am
I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am
I'm sorry but... -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am
The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm
the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am
A proof -- John May -- 28 Aug 01, 11:10 am
Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am
ok ok -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 12:00 am
My approach should work for you -- Stanford Wong -- 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm
This is terribly wrong -- Kim Lee -- 23 Aug 01, 7:30 pm
Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am
Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am
re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am
Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am
bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am
Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm
Question to Kim Lee from a novice?? -- big nguyen -- 24 Aug 01, 12:01 pm
Reducing Vigorish and Scalping -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 1:17 pm
Your well on your way to winning -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:53 pm
Further explanation requested. -- samo666 -- 25 Aug 01, 2:08 am
1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm

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