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My approach should work for you

Posted By: Stanford Wong
Date: 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm

In Response To: The Book: Sharp Sports Betting (Joseph P)

I’d like to pose a couple of questions to the board regarding Mr Wong’s excellent new book. There seems to be a great emphasis at wanting to quantify one’s edge as a part of the handicapping process. In a perfect world,(let’s say) all of our 5-star picks are 65%, 4-star 62%, 3-star 57.5% & so on (kind of like the amazing results of TwoMinuteWarning.com last season.) But I KNOW it just isn’t that way (for me) over the length of any season, which leads me to believe that I will be systematically overvaluing my “higher rated” picks & undervaluing my “lower rated” picks on a regular basis, hurting by bottom line in the process.
Since this seems to be a pretty experienced group, please give me your input & what you might see as a middle ground between Mr Wong’s approach & my own quandary.

If you read pages 27-30, you will see advice to keep records of how your picks do, and to use your own past performance to estimate your edge.

How have you done on your past picks to which you gave five stars? Have they actually won at a rate of 65%? Have your four-star picks actually won at a 62% rate? Have your three-star picks won at a 57.5% rate? If the answer to all those questions is "Yes" then go ahead and apply those win rates to your future graded picks.

You say you know it isn't that way for you over the length of any season, making it sound as if your 65%, 62%, and 57.5% figures are imaginary and are not related to your own past performance. If they are imaginary, don't use them. Use your actual results instead.

You say you "will be systematically overvaluing your 'higher rated' picks." If you think your actual results have been fortunate and relying on them would cause you to overvalue your edge, then reduce your estimate of your edge to a number that you think is appropriate. Do not overvalue your higher-rated picks just because your past higher-rated picks have done better than you expected them to. That's especially true if the number of picks on which you are estimating your edge is small.

You also say you will be "undervaluing your 'lower rated' picks on a regular basis." My advice here is to accept your past results, and not enhance them. Never size your bets on the belief that you suffered from back luck in the past. If your lower-rated picks won at the rate of say 52% in the past, then accept 52% as the rate at which they will win in the future.

Stanford Wong

Messages In This Thread

The Book: Sharp Sports Betting -- Joseph P -- 23 Aug 01, 11:01 am

Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm

over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm

Can't agree with that -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm

John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm

Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am

For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am

I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am

I'm sorry but... -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am

The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm

the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm

More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am

A proof -- John May -- 28 Aug 01, 11:10 am

Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am

ok ok -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 12:00 am

My approach should work for you -- Stanford Wong -- 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm

This is terribly wrong -- Kim Lee -- 23 Aug 01, 7:30 pm

Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am

Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am

re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am

Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am

bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am

Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm

Question to Kim Lee from a novice?? -- big nguyen -- 24 Aug 01, 12:01 pm

Reducing Vigorish and Scalping -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 1:17 pm

Your well on your way to winning -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:53 pm

Further explanation requested. -- samo666 -- 25 Aug 01, 2:08 am

1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm

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