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One more option

Posted By: James
Date: 31 Jul 01, 6:19 pm

In Response To: Mathematical analysis (Don Schlesinger)

Much more widely available than 14-5 parlays is discount juice on straight bets, typically -105, available always at a few books, and during specified sale periods at many more.

For -105 bets, your 3 hypothetical handicappers optimal bets are:

53% $48 bets, EV = $2.20 ROI = 2.3% (EV for 2 bets)
55% $130 bets, EV = $16.12 ROI = 6.2%
57% $212 bets, EV = $42.90 ROI = 10.1%

If I've done these calculations correctly, -105 juice is equivalent to 14:5 parlays for the 55% handicapper.

The strongest capper does better with -105 juice than 14:5 parlays.
The weakest capper does better with the parlays.

Messages In This Thread

Winning by hitting 52% -- fezzik -- 30 Jul 01, 10:50 pm
Mathematical analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 5:37 pm
Very nice, but what about... -- Flipper -- 31 Jul 01, 6:03 pm
One more option -- James -- 31 Jul 01, 6:19 pm
-105 vig -- fezzik -- 31 Jul 01, 6:37 pm
You can get +100 for NFL bets (nt) -- StevieY -- 31 Jul 01, 7:04 pm
Has anyone figured out -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 12:25 pm
Lots of bad bettors -- StevieY -- 1 Aug 01, 3:20 pm
A possible way -- David Matthews -- 1 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
I doubt it -- James -- 2 Aug 01, 9:31 am
Volume :-) (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 1 Aug 01, 6:05 pm
+100 NFL -- lepto -- 13 Aug 01, 3:02 am
Backchannel, please. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 13 Aug 01, 8:10 pm
No, calculations are incorrect -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 8:25 pm
Not surprised. Thanks. -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 10:20 am

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