NBA Forum

my approach...

Posted By: baba looey
Date: 30 Oct 01, 7:02 pm

In Response To: i like the pistons on the other side..... (tableburner)

thanks table for your interesting handicapping insights however...

...my approach is not based on handicapping individual teams, but on analysis of lines and results as a guide to value. i have identified a number of situations from past numbers which have delivered modest value (1.5-2% against -110 line) over the long run (eg for nba i am using 13 seasons data), against widely available lines. i propose to post them here as picks most days just before game time.

given that i only am targeting 53.5%-54% wins ats, i very much expect to have losing as well as winning streaks, and it may take some time (possibly longer than a season at the 5 or 6 picks per day i expect to post) for my edge to emerge from my results.

i would be interested in feedback on my experiment...although i am not proposing to debate/reveal my methods

i should add that quite often there will be an extra half point available at here or there better than my posted line, which i will no doubt take -- however i will be posting widely available lines here, so that if my experiment does bear fruit, i will not be accused of featherbedding my record with "shopped lines"...(eg today you could get magic -3 at -107 at canbet, whereas i posted the -3.5 at -110 available everywhere else).

cheers

bl

Messages In This Thread

picks 30/10 (ytd 0-0-0) -- baba looey -- 30 Oct 01, 2:54 pm

i like the pistons on the other side..... -- tableburner -- 30 Oct 01, 3:57 pm

my approach... -- baba looey -- 30 Oct 01, 7:02 pm

i hear ya..... -- tableburner -- 30 Oct 01, 10:12 pm

by the way, i'm sure u know i meant Pistons.... -- tableburner -- 30 Oct 01, 10:17 pm

results 30/10 (2-3-0, ytd 2-3-0) -- baba looey -- 30 Oct 01, 11:10 pm

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