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NBA Forum
my approach...
Posted By: baba looey
Date: 4 Nov 01, 10:47 pm
now that i appear to be hitting my straps (ytd 22-18-2, 55%) i thought there might be some interest in my picks and methods. here's some advice and information for those considering following and/or betting my picks.
first, don't bet...yet. 55% for 42 picks is statistically meaningless. i would not encourage anyone to bet my picks (or anyone else's for that matter), until there is a very, very long record of success, verifiable from posts. it may take some time, probably longer than a season, to determine whether my (experimental) methods have any validity (eg at the present rate i will be posting somewhere around 500 picks for the nba, imho not long enough to prove much at all). in fact, i fully expect really bad losing streaks, just like the good streak i have had the last three days (17-10-1, 63%).
second, be skeptical. i encourage feedback directed to ensuring that at the end of this experiment (whenever that may be) i can point to a record which is undisputed, and undisputable. that record may be undisputably good, or undisputably bad (i hope the former). either way, i will address any genuine, constructive, polite comments about my picks. win, lose or tie, i propose to be patient and grind away, day after day, for quite a while, to see whether i can demonstrate that i have a winning approach. i intend to expand. my next target is baseball, next season.
third, to head off any suggestion of posting "shopped", or unavailable, lines, i am going to nominate 5 (i believe) reputable on-line shops whose lines i am going to use as the benchmark lines for my picks. i will indicate the relevant shop when i post, and score myself against that post. this way if anyone wants to follow me or bet, they can sign up with those shops, and know that if they go to them soon after posting, they should be able to get the posted line at one or more of them as nominated. plus if you shop, you may be able to do better. i will use canbet, darwin all sports, megasports, pinnacle and sportsinteraction. if anyone wants me to set up an email list and to send out my picks, i will -- send me an email at baba.looey@start.com.au. but remember, i am not encouraging anyone to bet. as jack/jake said in "the croupier" (good gambling movie, check it out), "i do not gamble".
fourth, i am not going to reveal or debate my methods, other than to say that i do not handicap teams/games, i handicap lines. i use past lines and results data to find situations which seem to me to have been profitable in the past, in a material number of games, to an extent not apparently explicable by standard deviation. i am keeping things to myself because if my little experiment is a success, i might try and commercialise it. that of course will be some time (years?) off, and certainly not before i have proven myself here.
fifth, i am generally picking situations which seem to me to offer 54%+ profitability. if this is realised, then at reduced vig books i use, i am looking at about a 2%+ edge. if you must bet (which i discourage) don't overbet. i would suggest no more than 1%-1.5% of bankroll. if against my advice you bet, and bet more than the 1% to 1.5% mentioned above, i truly believe you will go broke eventually.
sixth, i will post when i can. this may be against overnight lines, on game day, neither or both. i have a day job and a family. this is my hobby (from which i make a little money here and there).
thanks to all at this site. i applaud the quality of much of the analysis, and the healthy attitude of skepticism shown by all. keep it up.
bl
- my approach... -- baba looey -- 4 Nov 01, 10:47 pm
- I look forward to it -- good luck!! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 4 Nov 01, 10:56 pm
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