NBA Forum

No Hedging just for the sake of hedging

Posted By: TrendMan
Date: 2 Nov 01, 3:45 pm

In Response To: Middling at halftime.. (Evan)

No Hedging just for the sake of hedging.

Only make the halftime bet that write of if it by itself is a good wager, ie it has a good enough chance of winning to overcome the vig.

Slansky covers this in "Getting the Best of It."

Wong may cover it in "Sharp Sports Betting" as well.

Back to your example. You say you have over 179.5 and 105 points have been score by the half. You propose taking under 91 for the 2nd half.

Let's say there's an 80% chance the game will go over 179.5 (I'm completely inventing and guessing that figure and it turns out our final conclusion will not depend on this figure) and a 50% chance the 2nd half will go under 91. (Here 50% is an all important figure. Since this is not enough to cover the vig you'll see that the hedge is not a good bet.)

If you stick with only your original bet you win 8/10 times.
Assuming a $110 wager you'll get back on the average 80% of 210=$168
$58 profit.

If you hedge you wager $110 twice and have 3 possibilities. Given the 80% and 50% assumptions you have the following cases:

1) 20% chance of Under 179.5 and Under 91. 20% chance of a return of $210 = Average $42

2) 30% chance of Over 179.5 and Under 91. Returns $420. .3*420=$126

3) 50% chance of Over 179.5 and Over 91.Returns $210. .5 times $210=$105.

105+126+42-220=$53,so your hedge has reduced your profit by $15.

A similar situation occurs in BJ. Unsophisticated players say you should allows take insurance if you have blackjack, but skilled players know that's usually a bas idea.

Messages In This Thread

Middling at halftime.. -- Evan -- 1 Nov 01, 6:10 pm

No Hedging just for the sake of hedging -- TrendMan -- 2 Nov 01, 3:45 pm

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