CFB Forum

3 Futures Picks (No history posting futures here)

Posted By: TrendMan
Date: 29 Aug 02, 10:50 pm

Texas UNDER 10 WINS -150. 1.5 unit to win 1 unit.

During the past two seasons Texas is 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at home including four blowout victories over bowl teams Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Colorado.

However, the Horns have not been impressive when taking on any team remotely competent (5-6 or better) away from Austin. In 3 road games and 4 contests held at neutral sites they are only 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS, failing on average to cover the spread by almost 14 points per game.

In 2000 they went 9-2 with 15 returning starters and a regular season schedule that included only 3 bowl teams.

In 2001 they had 17 returning starters, played 4 bowl teams in the regular season and went 10-1.

Now this season they only have 13 returning starters, play 6 teams that were in bowls last year and are expected to go 10-2. This is unrealistic since they have to play Nebraska, Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Kansas State on the road---twice as many bowl teams away from home as they did in 2000 and 2001 combined!

Texas A&M +1600 to win the Big-12. 0.2 units to win 3.2 units.

Texas A&M struggled last year because their offense slumped. They only averaged 20.7 ppg. From 1996 to 2000 they averaged 29.1 ppg. Their previous low in a season was 23.9 ppg in 1998, which was still good enough for them to win the Big-12 that year because the Aggies always have good defenses. With 7 starters back their defense will again be strong, but with 9 starters back the offense will be much improved and +1600 is generous considering their relatively easy schedule.

Let's compare the conference schedules of Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M. (To win the Big-12 one has to 1st win a division and A&M's main rivals in the South are Texas and Oklahoma).

Of course, all of them play the 3 other teams in the South,
Texas Tech (7-5), Oklahoma State (4-7), and Baylor (3-8).

The Red Raiders are the strongest of that bunch. A&M and Oklahoma play Tech at home and Baylor on the road. Meanwile, Texas travels to Lubbock and plays Baylor at home.

Advantage: Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State tries much harder to beat Oklahoma than they do A&M or Texas.
Advantage: Aggies and Longhorns.

In the games between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M the Longhorns have one home and one neutral contest, A&M one home, one away, and Oklahoma one neutral and one away.

Double Advantage: Texas Single Advantage: A&M

Each club plays 3 teams from the Big-12 North. This is where A&M has it much easier.

A&M and Oklahoma play Missouri (4-7). Texas plays Kansas State (6-6).

Advantage: Aggies and Sooners.

A&M plays Nebraska (11-2) at home. Oklahoma plays Colorado (10-3) at home. Texas plays AT Nebraska.

Advantage A&M and Oklahoma.

The Aggies play Kansas(3-8). Oklahoma and Texas play Iowa State (7-5).

Advantage: Texas A&M.

All-Time Big-12 South Titles: (I admit this isn't the most valuable category)
Texas - 3, A&M - 2, Oklahoma - 1

Double Advantage - Texas. Single Advantage - A&M

Returning Starters - Lettermen: A&M 16-48, Oklahoma 15-39, Texas 13-46.

Advantage: A&M

Under the Most Pressure: Chris Simms. More pressure and abuse than any college kid should have to take for something as insignificant as a game.

Advantage: Oklahoma and A&M

Tally of Edges
--------------
Texas A&m - 9
Texas - 5
Oklahoma - 5

Odds to win the Big-12: Texas and Oklahoma +200. Texas A&M +1600.
Value: Aggies.

Overall in conference play Texas A&M plays only 4 bowl teams from last year, with just one (Texas) on the road. Last year they played 6 bowl teams in conference and 4 of those games were on the road!

Oklahoma plays 5 bowl teams with one (A&M) being on the road and another (Texas) at a neutral site.

Texas plays 6 bowl teams with 3 being away and one at a neutral site.
3 conference road games against bowl-bound opponents would be as many as they had in 2001, 2000, and 1999 combined!

Mississippi State +40000 to win the SEC. 0.1 unit to win 4.0 units.

Whoever wins the SEC-West, except possibly LSU will likely be an underdog in the SEC Title game. I sort of view this wager as approximately MSU + 8000 to win the SEC-West.

As for the competition in the West, Alabama's on probation and ineligible. LSU will have everyone gunning for them this year. How will they handle it? 'Ole Miss couldn't stop the run last year and gets Florida on the schedule this year instead of Kentucky. Alabama still gets to play in the "Iron Bowl." I think that game will be a sure loss for Auburn, putting them at a disadvantage in the SEC-West race. Arkansas has a fine team, but at +1600 do not offer the value that MSU does at +40000. Remember, MSU won the SEC-West in 1998 and despite last year's abnormal 3-8 slate they still have more wins (36) in the last five years than any of their Western competition!

Messages In This Thread

3 Futures Picks (No history posting futures here) -- TrendMan -- 29 Aug 02, 10:50 pm

try shopping on Texas -- rcdavies -- 30 Aug 02, 2:34 am

I ended up opening a new account to get -120 -- TrendMan -- 30 Aug 02, 9:38 am

Mandalay Bay -- ricky -- 30 Aug 02, 10:28 am

carib was -110 a few days ago (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Aug 02, 10:43 am

Still -110 at Carib (nt) -- Goats -- 30 Aug 02, 12:29 pm

Long Gone. My buddy grabbed it twice. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 30 Aug 02, 11:54 pm

MS State +4000, not +40000, right? (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Aug 02, 10:51 am

Yes, only +4000, sorry (nt) -- TrendMan -- 30 Aug 02, 11:29 am

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