CFB Forum

Season Ov-Unders (Long)

Posted By: Dr Wogga
Date: 22 Aug 02, 11:53 am

The top pick for me is Wisconsin Over 7.5 -120 (All quoted lines are from Canbet 8/21). The Badgers returning 8 on offense, including their entire line and QB. Their achilles looks to be on D, where only 3 starters return. However, they are playing a very easy 5 game non-conference schedule to start the season - 4 of the 5 at home - and there is no big-time offense in the bunch with Carr gone from Fresno. I expect the Badgers to win all 5 non-conference games, getting the D up to speed for the conference schedule, where they should only need 3 of 8 conference games to get the money. 5 units.

3 Unit plays:
Florida Under 8.5 +140. Think UF is in for a tough season with new coach Zook and his new staff. This will be an adjustment going from the Fun-n-Gun offense-minded Spurrier to a defensive guy like Zook. The Fla schedule is a tough one and I break it down as such: Real tough games include Mia-Fla at home, road games at Tenn and FSU, and annual neutral game with Georgia. I expect Gators to lose 3 of these games, but possibly all 4. The next group of games, moderately tough include LSU and So Car at home and Ole Miss on the road. They could lose at least 1 of these as well. A 5 loss season is not out of the question and getting +140?

Louisville Ov 9.5 +105. Have a mother-effer of a defense and a stud QB. The negative is they play FSU and road games at Colorado St and So Miss. Wouldn't be surprised if they win 2 of these 3 - and don't fall over if they beat Noles outright.

Ohio St Ov 9.5 -127. Like Wisky, non-conf schedule has 4 of 5 at home. Have only 2 tough conf road games and the 13 game schedule was the tie-breaker for me.

Oregon St Ov 7.5 -145. Beavers play their usual garbage non-conf schedule that should leave them to only need 4-4 in the PAC10 and their conf schedule shapes up nicely as they don't play Wash St, have the Ducks and Bruins at home, and only very tough road game appears to be at Wash. They could possibly win 10 games and be a BCS dark horse.

Wash St Ov 8.5 -110. Stud QB and also a fairly favorable schedule. Non-conf schedule easy except for trip to Ohio St. Conf schedule not overly hard with Oregon and Huskies at home. Only conf raod toughie might be Bruins.

2 unit plays:
Georgia Ov 8.5 -133. Could this be the year Ga wins the SEC East? Lou Holtz thinks so - I have a gut-hunch about Bulldogs, but hard to get overly pumped since they have stumbled so many times with quality talent. Their schedule is not the easiest in the world with road games at So Cal, Bama, Auburn, and Ga Tech. At least they get Vols at home and they have the usual cocktail party game vs Gators in J'ville, which might be winnable this year.

Oklahoma Ov 10.5 +115. Talk about an easy schedule - no Nebraska, no K State. Their only major tough games are at Texas and home vs. Buffs. A road game at A&M can be a tough one, but Sooners have waaaay too much talent for Aggies IMO. Since I think so little of Simms and Texas, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sooners ran the table and made it to the Big 12 conf championship and Fiesta Bowl. However, they can only afford 1 stumble.....

A&M Under 8.5 +110. I'll be the 1st to admit I don't think much of the Aggies or R.C. Slocum for that matter - but they have a bunch of tough games IMO: Va Tech, Nebraska, and Oklahoma at home and road games at Pitt and Texas. They will be extremely hard-pressed to win 2 of these games.

1 unit plays:
Maryland Ov 8.5 +110. They play 13 game sked and have to lose 5. The ACC isn't that tough and Fridgen has shown he can coach. Would make this a bigger bet, but this year Maryland's going to find a lot of people waiting for them - that may change the dynamics a tad.

Penn St Ov 8.5 +120. Possible turnaround year at Happy Valley? A lot of people in the east think so. The key for the Nittany Lions is to win at least 1 of their 3 tough conference road games: Wisky, Michigan, or Ohio St. Among their 3 hardest home games: Illnois, Michigan St and Nebraska, they need to win at least 2. That's a lot of ifs, hence 1 unit. However, with respect to the Nebraska game, I fully expect to Penn St to win outright - that being Jamal Lord's first prime-time road game.

Messages In This Thread

Season Ov-Unders (Long) -- Dr Wogga -- 22 Aug 02, 11:53 am

It's tough to make money playing overs on top25 teams! -- Fezzik -- 23 Aug 02, 5:26 am

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