CFB Forum

NCAA season win totals picks (LY: 197 picks, +16.6 units)

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 25 Jul 02, 11:29 pm

If this year holds to form there should be some juicy arbs (and even juicier off-market lines) on college football season win totals as more books start posting lines. Anything like this I will be posting in the CFB box seats. But for now I thought I would put out my top picks against Olympic's line (thegreek.com). Their limit is typically to win 2 dimes, which is higher than most books, and so this early line is IMO worth playing. My apologies if my bets move the line on these; the numbers were good as of 30 minutes ago.

My top picks are as follows:

Washington State UNDER 8.5 wins +125, 2 units to win 2.5
With a strong finish last season, and one of the easiest schedules in the Pac-10 (especially now that the @Hawaii game is off), expectations are high at WAZOO, and so is the hype. But let's get real: the Cougars are Johnny-come-latelies, and the Pac-10 schedule is brutal. They should come out of their noncon schedule 3-1 (Nevada, Idaho, Montana State, & Ohio State), but I give them a 25% chance of losing 2 or more contests before reaching Pac-10 play. Three of their toughest four games come at the very end of the season (OR, WA, @UCLA) so I've still got a great bet even if the Cougars show a 7-2 record coming down the stretch (which I'm not expecting).

Florida State UNDER 11 wins -115, 2.3 units to win 2
I've commented on FSU already (see link below). To lose this bet the 'Noles would need to go 12-1 or 13-0 against the second best schedule in CFB (to USC), including games against Miami and the Gators. Tough games also @ Louisville & Georgia Tech, with plenty of other opponents capable of a moderate upset.

Georgia UNDER 8.5 wins +125, 2 units to win 2.5
The Bulldogs haven't won nine games in any of the last three years (and did it only twice in the last 9 years), but here we get plus money for expecting them not to improve too much.

Ohio State UNDER 10 wins -135, 2.7 units to win 2
Usually I much prefer the plus money, but I don't mind laying the wood here on the number 10. 11-2 seems near impossible with so many games that are coin-flips for OSU at best: Texas Tech, @Wisconsin, @Purdue, @Illinois, Michigan. I count four other teams with at least a 1 in 3 chance of knocking off the Buckeyes: WASU, @Cincy, @NWestern, Penn State. 10 wins is possible, but 9 is far likelier than 11.

More in a week or so.

CC

FSU post

Messages In This Thread

NCAA season win totals picks (LY: 197 picks, +16.6 units) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Jul 02, 11:29 pm

How about..... -- The bhead -- 26 Jul 02, 9:49 am

Don't like the assumptions of losses at home. -- TrendMan -- 26 Jul 02, 2:53 pm

Agree with you *and* TrendMan -- Colin Caster -- 26 Jul 02, 5:55 pm

Thanks... -- The bhead -- 26 Jul 02, 10:00 pm

Florida State -- ricky -- 26 Jul 02, 11:46 pm

There's no way ... -- SoCal Pat -- 27 Jul 02, 1:08 am

Kansas City -- ricky -- 27 Jul 02, 7:41 am

There's two ... -- SoCal Pat -- 27 Jul 02, 8:02 am

betting on games in the future -- ricky -- 27 Jul 02, 8:22 am

Dramatic differences -- Colin Caster -- 27 Jul 02, 8:57 am

big faves on road -- ricky -- 27 Jul 02, 9:37 am

Good points -- Colin Caster -- 27 Jul 02, 10:57 am

I'm asking you! -- ricky -- 27 Jul 02, 11:25 am

I see your point -- Colin Caster -- 27 Jul 02, 12:38 pm

Season Win Totals update -- Colin Caster -- 23 Aug 02, 11:38 pm

BTW, you have stumbled on a great slogan for the site -- joefu -- 26 Aug 02, 4:00 pm

Love it. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 27 Aug 02, 7:24 pm

Final list of Season Win Totals picks -- Colin Caster -- 24 Aug 02, 9:46 pm

FSU can be found -- joefu -- 26 Aug 02, 3:50 pm

Looking back -- Ben Dover -- 8 Aug 03, 2:27 pm

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